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2016 chemical products usher in the market price of rubber bull market?

Return Clicks:1599Time:2017-01-22

2016化工产品迎来涨价潮,橡胶的牛市来了?
    - in 2017, rubber bull market can continue -

With the improvement of supply and demand, in 2016 the chemical industry boom significantly improved. We counted 294 different types and specifications of chemical products, nearly 80% of chemical products in 2016 rose. The basic surface of the rubber market than expected, to the influx of funds, led by rubber chemicals.
At the beginning of the new year, rubber continues to rise, has now stood on the 20 thousand mark. Based on the relevant data of radish investment and research, we analyze the rubber industry.
Rubber industry fundamentals than expected
A number of varieties of natural rubber and synthetic rubber after years of falling prices after 2016 rose significantly, statistics found that the price of natural rubber in the year rose 65%, the price of synthetic rubber in the rubber rose 150%, styrene butadiene rubber, nitrile rubber prices also rose significantly.


图1 涨幅居前的化工产品价格变化分布(截至2016年12月31日)数据来源:通联数据萝卜投研
Figure 1 - gainers of chemical products price change distribution (as of December 31, 2016) source: communications data radish investment research
图2 天然橡胶和合成橡胶价格走势,数据来源:通联数据萝卜投研
Figure 2 - natural rubber and synthetic rubber prices, sources of data: data communications radish investment research

Rubber is mainly divided into natural rubber and synthetic rubber, natural rubber is from rubber trees, rubber grass and other plants in the extraction of pectin after processing; synthetic rubber is the main raw material for oil, using chemical methods.
Natural rubber and synthetic rubber can be coordinated development, complement each other. Natural rubber has its inherent characteristics, in some areas, synthetic rubber can not be replaced. In the long run, oil resources are non renewable resources, the oil industry is facing a significant transformation in the future, while natural rubber is a renewable resource, its prospects are worth looking forward to.
"Tire" is the main consumption area of rubber, accounting for 70% of the rubber consumer market, and mainly natural rubber as raw material. China's natural rubber mainly rely on imports from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries, the proportion of imports up to 75%.

图3 橡胶上下游产业结构(左),下游消费占比(右)数据来源:通联数据萝卜投研
2016化工产品迎来涨价潮,橡胶的牛市来了?

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